I recently read an after-action report about an accident involving an avalanche involving high school age youth, which report discussed “decision-making models” that could be used by an organization in an attempt to avoid a bad outcome for an activity. Such “models” may be employed with success by Scouting units in the planning and conduct of their annual outdoor program.
The model employs five “decision points”, namely the following:
(1) decision point #1: the initial decision to adopt an activity or program location (this decision takes into account the unit’s risk tolerance and program objectives, choosing the least risky location to achieve the program objectives);
(2) decision point #2: the annual decision to keep or repeat an activity or program location (repeating an activity for the sake of repeating the activity may ignore prior post-activity assessments that may require a change in the annual plan);
(3) decision point #3: decisions made during the program year (where it is determined if the schedule needs to be adjusted, have appropriate leaders been identified for the activity, do the leaders have appropriate venue or activity-specific experience and skills, whether the activity still makes sense);
(4) decision point #4: proximate decisions (the assessment period about 14 days prior to the activity, where information becomes available regarding expected conditions at the location, weather trends, the making of contingency plans); and
(5) decision point #5: on-site and during the activity decisions (the most important decisions to be made are on-site and during the activity decisions, whether the activity needs to be modified or canceled, with such decisions having a short shelf life, and which depend on situational awareness, and human and environmental factors).
Units may find that they presently use some or all of this decision-making model as part of the outdoor program planning process, but an understanding of the overall process should be useful from a risk management standpoint.