Several outdoor risk management commentators equate “risk factors ignored” to “lemons” such as might appear on a slot machine, such that when sufficient “lemons” accumulate due to ignored risk factors, the “jackpot” of overwhelming risk results, potentially leading to a tragic outcome. See, for instance, Haddock, “Managing Risks in Outdoor Activities“, New Zealand Mountain Safety Manual 27, 1993, among others. See, also, this blog.
By way of example, a group hiking the Appalachian Trail is caught unaware in a storm with falling temperatures as a result of failing to adequately check the weather forecast, leading to the first lemon :
The group then discovers that two of its members do not have any rain gear, as a result of the group failing to do a proper personal gear check prior to departing, resulting in a second lemon :
The group members without rain gear become hypothermic, but the group discovers that the backpacking stove that they brought is inoperable (not discovered due to the group failing to conduct a proper crew gear check prior to the hike), preventing the group from preparing hot liquids to administer to the hypothermic hikers, resulting in a third lemon :
The group, realizing that they need emergency rescue assistance for the hypothermic hikers, attempts to call for rescue, but are surprised to discover that there is no cell service in the wilderness area within which they are hiking, having not verified beforehand whether emergency cell service was possible, leading to a serious medical emergency with which the group must deal on its own without anyone trained in wilderness first aid, and which emergency becomes progressively more serious as the storm continues to intensify, resulting in the fourth lemon:
WE HAVE A WINNER! . . . the outcome is now in doubt!
The lesson . . .
Properly prepare for, and conduct, your outdoor activity.
You can’t always make lemonade from lemons, and too many lemons can lead to a bad outcome!